The Velocity Slump: Unraveling Pitching Woes
In the world of baseball, velocity is a crucial metric, and its fluctuations can significantly impact a pitcher's performance. Today, we delve into the stories of three pitchers who have experienced a decline in four-seam fastball velocity, and how this has affected their game.
José Soriano: Unraveling the Mystery
José Soriano, the Los Angeles Angels' pitcher, started the 2026 season on a high note, but his ERA skyrocketed in May and June. The correlation between this decline and his four-seam velocity drop is intriguing. Unlike many pitchers, Soriano's four-seam isn't his primary pitch, but its velocity drop, along with his sinker, is notable.
What's fascinating is that despite the velocity drop, Soriano's splitter, a slower pitch, remained stable. This suggests a potential adjustment in his pitching strategy, which could be a conscious decision or a result of physical limitations. The subsequent increase in fly-ball rate and home-run rate in May is a cause for concern, indicating a loss of control and command.
However, Soriano's July performance offers a glimmer of hope. His HR/FB rate plummeted, and while luck played a role, it also showcases his ability to adapt. In my opinion, Soriano's short-term fantasy value remains promising, but the year-on-year velocity decline since 2024 is a red flag for long-term prospects.
Bryce Miller: A Tale of Injury and Velocity
Bryce Miller, the Seattle Mariners' pitcher, faced a challenging 2025 season due to injuries, and his velocity took a hit. This season, he started strong, but July revealed a different story. Miller's four-seam velocity, typically around 95 mph, is a key component of his success. The recent decline, coupled with his injury history, raises concerns.
The decision to forgo surgery for his elbow injury has left bone spurs, potentially affecting his performance. The velocity drop is evident, and while he remains a top-tier starter in fantasy rankings, his recent performances below 96 mph are less than ideal. The corresponding dip in spin rate further complicates matters, indicating a potential conscious effort to protect the elbow or a physical limitation.
In my view, Miller's ability to manage his velocity at 95-96 mph will be crucial for his future success. His performance when his four-seam velocity is above 96 mph highlights the importance of this metric in his game.
Paul Skenes: Beyond Velocity
Paul Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates' pitcher, is a fascinating case. Despite a Cy Young-winning season, his 2026 performance has been underwhelming. The decline in four-seam velocity is notable, but it's not the sole reason for his struggles. A closer look reveals that his changeup and sinker have regressed significantly, with reduced vertical drop and spin rate, leading to a decrease in strikeout rates.
What's intriguing is that Skenes' four-seam fastball metrics between 2025 and 2026 are eerily similar, indicating that the issue lies elsewhere. Personally, I believe this points to a mechanical problem, which might require an offseason fix. However, from a fantasy perspective, there's still hope for a turnaround in 2026, as Skenes has the potential to adjust and regain his form.
